Could weight-loss drugs ultimately reduce health care spending?

Bruce Japsen reports for Forbes that weight-loss drugs are costing employers $324 per worker each year. These costs will only increase as more workers take these prescription drugs, if the government does not step in to rein in drug prices. They will also drive up Medicare costs a lot if Medicare decides to cover drugs for weight loss. (Medicare covers weight-loss drugs for people with diabetes.) Ideally, weight-loss drugs will reduce the prevalence of diabetes, heart disease and other costly conditions, driving down overall health care spending.

Right now, Wegovy, Rybelsus and Saxenda as well as Ozempic are responsible for ever higher insurance premiums, deductibles and copays. Their costs likely will keep going up, as more people take them and their manufacturers raise prices. When will our government step in to negotiate prescription drug prices for everyone or, at the very least, open our borders to prescription drugs from verified pharmacies abroad, which are significantly cheaper than in the US and have been shown to be safe.

In 2021, weight-loss drugs contributed to $96 of insurance costs for each worker. In two years, health insurance costs for these weight-loss drugs are projected to rise to $500 per worker.

Competition from new weight-loss drugs should contain costs some. And, indeed, Gina Kolata reports for the New York Times that more weight-loss drugs are coming to market. Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, tirzepatide, is the latest to receive FDA approval. But, even if these drugs bring down prices a little, these new drugs are sure to drive up demand. Obesity is rampant in the US, affecting 100 million adults.

Time will tell the extent to which these new weight-loss drugs affect the overall cost of health care in the US. Zepbound’s initial list price for a four-week dose is $1,060, somewhat less than the price of Wegovy, which is $1,349. But, these drugs are expected to drive down people’s weight by as much as 20 percent, helping to reduce their risk of diabetes, heart disease and other chronic conditions people develop as a result of being overweight. We can only hope that the cost of these drugs will be offset by savings from a reduction in the prevalence of some costly chronic conditions.