Megan Molteni reports for StatNews on the future of Omicron. Sadly, we ain’t seen nothing yet. Omicron and its variants could be with us for longer than imaginable, and it could have particularly deadly consequences.
Experts say that we could easily have six to eight more bad weeks of Omicron ahead of us. Around the world, one group of experts predict three billion new cases by the end of February. People in low-income countries will be at greatest risk.
At its worst, Omicron will cause massive numbers of people–largely unvaccinated people–to be hospitalized, keeping other people from getting medically necessary treatments and preventive services that are not Covid-related.
That said, if Omicron infects 40 percent of people world-wide in the next two months, as some predict, it could lead to herd immunity, at least for a time.
No question that Omicron spreads quickly and does a good job of infecting vaccinated and boosted individuals as well as the unvaccinated. Thankfully, vaccinated individuals seem to have mild symptoms. One new study suggests that Omicron has a higher risk of leading to severe disease in unvaccinated individuals.
At its worst, Omicron could lead to nearly 350,000 more people dying in the first half of this year, about 60,000 more than in 2021. If Omicron turns out to be less transmissible than Delta but causes a little more serious disease, we would likely see half as many deaths as in 2021.
Some good news: Three new studies find that Omicron leads to fewer hospitalizations than Delta. But, it could still test our public health system, overrunning our hospitals. Delta was causing 115,000 infections a day in early December.
President Biden has announced that the administration will distribute 500 million free rapid tests, but that’s less than two a person and hardly enough. He is also planning to deploy military medics to hospitals and use Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, to provide testing.
We don’t yet know what the next variants of Covid will look like, how quickly they will spread, or how severe a toll they will take on people. Scientists are finding that the novel coronavirus mutates in very different ways from the flu.
Some additional good news. Pfizer’s Covid pill appears to be working, and Pfizer will be manufacturing 120 million pills this year. They should keep people from hospitalization.
Some less good news. No one thinks Covid is going away. In fact, it is infecting dogs, cats, deer and other wildlife, giving it a perch in the world that cannot be contained.
Here’s more from Just Care:
Leave a Reply