A new study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, by Alison Galvani et al. at Yale, finds that raising the Medicare eligibility to 67, as many Republicans are proposing, could lead to thousands of additional deaths each year.
The House Republican Study Committee recommended raising the Medicare eligibility age to 67 as a way to reduce Medicare spending. But Galvani found that raising the age would significantly increase the number of older adults who are uninsured. People who are uninsured often skip necessary treatments and forgo filling prescription medicines. They can end up spending more on health care than they would have had they received the care they needed.
When people don’t get the care they need, they often end up in the emergency room and some die needlessly. In addition, says Galvani, if they have a contagious disease, they can threaten the public health. It “can cause a condition to become both more serious and ultimately more costly. In the case of infectious diseases, forgoing health care can lead to transmission to other people that may have been prevented.”
Galvani and her team looked at how the two-year increase in the age of Medicare eligibility would contribute to the number of older adults who are uninsured. They then considered how being uninsured increases people’s likelihood of dying. They concluded that around 10,000 people would die needlessly every year if Congress increased the Medicare eligibility age two years.
To protect themselves politically, the Republicans would increase the Medicare eligibility age slowly–likely by two or three months each year until the age of 67. During that time, Galvani’s team projects that 17,244 older adults would die if Congress raised the eligibility age by two months a year, and 25,847 older adults would die if it raised the eligibility age by three months a year.
Galvani’s team also looked at the effects of raising the Medicare eligibility age on people with diabetes. They found that more than 325,000 people with diabetes could be unable to get health care if the Medicare eligibility age were raised to 67. Many of them would also struggle to get insulin.
State governments would also feel the effects of an increase in the Medicare eligibility age. Their spending would likely increase. More people would look to their states for health care coverage and other supports.
There are far smarter ways to reduce Medicare spending. Galvani’s team has looked at the effects of a guaranteed universal health care model and found that it could save a lot more money than raising the Medicare eligibility age to 67, while also saving lives. In an earlier study, they projected a single-payer system would save $450 billion each year. Raising the Medicare eligibility age would save at most $25,5 billion over five years. A single-payer system would also prevent nearly 70,000 deaths each year.
“If policymakers want to save lives and costs, our analyses have shown single-payer universal health care is the solution,” says Galvani.
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